Greg Monroe is the first domino in the always-entertaining NBA buyout market. On Wednesday, it was reported the Phoenix Suns had agreed to a buyout for Monroe’s final year, worth about $18 million, and he would be hitting free agency.
Five years ago, it would be ridiculous to think of Monroe as a buyout candidate. At the time, he was emerging for the Detroit Pistons as half of their two-headed frontcourt monster along with Andre Drummond. During a four-year span there (excluding his rookie year), Monroe averaged 32 minutes, 16 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 50 percent shooting from the field.
But the NBA’s modernization happened quickly, and starting spots for players like Monroe are few and far between now. Monroe doesn’t space the floor, he’s made zero three-pointers in his career, and he isn’t a great defender — two deadly sins for a player his size. It says something that he couldn’t break his way into the Milwaukee Bucks rotation to begin this year.
Still, Monroe has useful qualities, and there’s definitely a role for him on someone’s bench — it’s just a matter of where. There is “significant interest league-wide” for the 27-year-old, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. It feels likely Monroe will wait for the Feb. 8 trade deadline before making any decisions, although there might be a situation so good he makes tentative plans before then. As it stands right now, though, here are the situations that make the most sense for Monroe.
7. The field
Chances this happens: We’re about to list the five teams most likely to snag Monroe, but you never know. Twenty-eight teams technically could sign Monroe — anyone who isn’t Phoenix, who bought him out, and Milwaukee, who can’t sign him for one year since trading him.
Miami just got a disabled player exception, though the Heat have three centers already. Houston might want a backup behind Nene, even if it can’t promise Monroe many minutes. The Raptors make some sense for Monroe, especially if they swing a trade for Jonas Valanciunas by the Feb. 8 trade deadline. (There’s no smoke that such a trade is imminent, though. Not many teams need starting centers and Valanciunas’ contract is massive.) And while it doesn’t make much sense, Cleveland is desperate. Maybe the allure of LeBron James is enough to drag in Monroe.
For that reason, we’ll say that the field has a 10 percent chance to snag him.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Why it makes sense: The Thunder don’t have a true backup center behind Steven Adams, instead filling his minutes with smaller options like Jerami Grant, Carmelo Anthony, and Patrick Patterson. Oklahoma City might want another backup big with similarities to Adams, just in case. The team used Enes Kanter with great success last year, and Monroe carries some surface level comparisons.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Oklahoma City won’t be giving up on those small-ball lineups, and while Monroe might be similar to Adams in the sense they both can’t shoot, he won’t nearly replicate Adams’ defensive abilities. Do the Thunder have a better shot at contention than, say, the Celtics? Do they have more than 10 minutes for Monroe, like New Orleans would? Both answers are likely, “no.”
Chances this happens: I’m going to say 4 percent. It feels like there are better options out there, but you never know.
5. Golden State Warriors
Why it makes sense: Golden State’s frontcourt is made up of two reliable veterans, David West and Zaza Pachulia, and two interesting younger bigs, Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney. They also have JaVale McGee, who has played sparingly this season. All of them are useful, but Monroe is a veteran big man who is more reliable than the younger players and likely more productive than the older core. Imagine the Warriors being interested in signing you, and telling them, “no.” Could Monroe really do that?
Why it doesn’t make sense: Monroe is a stiff 6’11 who wouldn’t fit all that well into the Warriors’ constantly switching defense. (Then again, neither does Pachulia and arguably West.) Plus, Golden State’s best lineups often ignore traditional big men altogether, opting for a Draymond Green and Kevin Durant combo.
Chances this happens: 10 percent, even with no real indication so far the Warriors are even interested. ‘
4. Washington Wizards
Why it makes sense: John Wall is out six to eight weeks after a minor arthroscopic knee procedure, and the Wizards’ only true big man off the bench after Marcin Gortat is Ian Mahinmi. Monroe has proved to be a reliable low post scorer who could help Washington’s middling bench unit, and TNT’s David Aldridge lists the Wizards as a team interested in the scoring center’s services.
David Aldridge
@daldridgetnt
Add Spurs, Wizards to growing list of playoff teams interested in Greg Monroe post-waivers. Celtics and Pelicans among others.
8:14 PM – Feb 1, 2018
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Why it doesn’t make sense: Monroe makes Washington’s bench a little bit better, but he doesn’t necessarily move the needle in making the Wizards more competitive in the playoffs. He’ll also have to compete for minutes behind players who have been staples in Washington’s rotation for years.
Chances this happens: Signing Monroe on the buyout market is a move that makes the Wizards a little bit better without giving up any assets. Let’s run with a 10 percent chance these two work something out.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Why it makes sense: The Spurs have a long track record of taking in underappreciated veterans and turning them into excellent, productive backups. The most direct comparison is David Lee, who averaged 19 minutes for San Antonio last season while playing in 79 games. Monroe and Lee are extremely similar players at this stage, and the Spurs wanted to bring Lee back last summer but couldn’t fit it in under the salary cap. Maybe Monroe can be their Lee replacement.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Is San Antonio going anywhere this season? The Spurs are hanging onto the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, but this mysterious Kawhi Leonard injury has put a damper on everything.
Chances this happens: Let’s slap an 11 percent on this, because you should never count out San Antonio for anything.
2. New Orleans Pelicans
Why this makes sense: New Orleans just lost DeMarcus Cousins for the season, and according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Pelicans are gathering momentum in the race for Monroe. They’ve even said he will have a chance to win the starting job alongside Anthony Davis.
New Orleans had originally targeted Nikola Mirotic, but that deal has fallen through for now, and perhaps for good. The Pelicans have been playing with two big men all year and can space the floor next to Monroe. If Monroe is looking for a payday next season, then there’s no team that can give him more minutes to prove himself.
Another reason: Monroe was born in the New Orleans suburbs. Not every player feels connected to their childhood, but there’s only one team that could advertise homecoming in their sales pitch.
Why this doesn’t make sense: Monroe, and everyone else, must know the Pelicans aren’t serious contenders and probably aren’t even making it past the first round.
Chances this happens: 20 percent. There’s opportunity and personal connections, but there’s also nothing like joining a contending team for the first time in your professional career. It’d be hard for Monroe to pass that up.
1. Boston Celtics
Why this makes sense: Boston currently uses Daniel Theis, Marcus Morris, and Semi Ojeleye as backup big men behind Al Horford and Aron Baynes. All three have range, though Ojeleye is only hitting 30 percent from deep. But none of them finish and rebound as well as Monroe, who would immediately add another element to their bench and their No. 14-ranked rebounding percentage.
It has already been reported the Celtics are interested in Monroe, and they have an $8.4-million disabled player exception they could use on him. That exception allows them to outbid anyone else, while Boston would also give Monroe one of the best shots at winning. That said, Monroe is still collecting some percentage of his $18 million contract this season. Money might not necessarily be the most important thing.
Why this doesn’t make sense: It’s possible Monroe could fall out of a postseason rotation, especially if he isn’t effective.
Chances this happens: I’ll say there’s a 45 percent chance Monroe heads to Boston. It was just reported so quickly there was interest between the two parties, and it does make sense.
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